Daily Commentary
Commentary prepared by Alloya Investment Services, a division of the wholly owned CUSO of Alloya Corporate Federal Credit Union. Alloya Investment Services is a leading broker/dealer consultant to credit unions.
Friday, April 17, 2026 at 8:00 am CT
Commentary prepared by Tom Slefinger, Market Strategist
Market Indications
Other Market Indicators
| Market Indicators | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2s/5s Tsy Spread | 0.13 | 0.00 |
| 2s/10s Tsy Spread | 0.53 | 0.00 |
| 2s/30s Tsy Spread | 1.16 | 0.00 |
| DJIA-30 | 48,678.72 | +115.00 |
| S&P-500 | 7,041.28 | +18.33 |
| NASDAQ | 24,102.70 | +86.68 |
| Dollar Idx | 98.11 | -0.09 |
| CRB Idx | 374.61 | +2.61 |
| Gold | 4,789.57 | -1.45 |
Daily Commentary
Recap – The beat goes on as the stock market continues to reflect both the impact of Iran's now crippled economy and optimism regarding the future. Equity futures have advanced once again, with Nasdaq achieving a new record — marking its 12th consecutive day of gains, the longest streak since July 2009. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has been up in 11 of the past 12 sessions (up by a ripping +11% from the recent trough) and is now +2% higher than it was before the fighting began on February 28, even though gas prices are still up +37% since then. The Russell 2000 also closed at a record, the index's first record close since January 22.
Not only has the stock market made new highs, but high yield spreads; at 263 basis points, they are over 20 points tighter than pre-war levels and roughly half the historical average of +500. At 18, the volatility index (VIX) is also lower than it was before the war broke out. For anyone predicting that the risk on trade would come back with such force, a tip of the hat to you.
Bond markets are little changed in early trade with the 10-year Treasury benchmark trading at 4.29%. The long bond is 4.91%. At the front-end, twos and fives are yielding 3.76% and 3.89%, respectively.
From a data perspective, there is little doubt that this week was marked by the incoming U.S. economic reports, that, for the most part, came in above expectations. And there were no tape bombs about private credit or the consumer out of the banks’ earnings results in ruffling any feathers. Above all, in this sentiment-driven market, President Trump’s heightened economic pressure on Iran and his efforts to reduce the regime’s influence have been the main drivers behind the recent surge in the bull market over the past two weeks. The most effective way to fight an economic war is through economic means.
The latest good news was that President Trump predicted that the war will be over very soon and a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has just gone into effect. Let’s hope this is true.
Stay tuned and have a great day!
Economic Calendar
April 13 - 17, 2026
Future Fed Expectations
Source: Bloomberg
| Select Probabilities based on the Futures | |
|---|---|
| Probability of Fed Funds rate HIKE on April 29, 2026 | 02% |
| Probability of Fed Funds rate CUT on June 17, 2026 | -01% |
**All quoted rates are indications and are subject to change without notice.
* ISI is a member of the FINRA/SIPC.
The information contained herein is prepared by ISI Registered Representatives for general circulation and is distributed for general information only. This information does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situations or particular needs of any specific individual or organization that may receive this report. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities. All opinions, prices, and yields contained herein are subject to change without notice. Investors should understand that statements regarding future prospects might not be realized. Please contact Alloya Investment Services to discuss your specific situation and objectives.