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Daily Market Commentary

Commentary prepared by Balance Sheet Solutions, LLC, a wholly owned CUSO of Alloya Corporate Federal Credit Union. Balance Sheet Solutions is a leading broker/dealer consultant to credit unions.

Monday, November 18, 2019 at 8:00 a.m. CST
Commentary prepared by Tom Slefinger, SVP, Director of Institutional Fixed Income Sales, Registered Representative of ISI*, Balance Sheet Solutions

Market Indications

Historic Treasury Curves

Other Market Indicators

Market Indicators  
2s/5s Tsy Spread0.040.00
2s/10s Tsy Spread0.220.00
2s/30s Tsy Spread 0.700.00
DJIA-30 28,004.89+222.93
NASDAQ 8,540.83+61.81
S&P-500 3,120.46+23.83
Dollar Idx 97.03-0.05
CRB Idx 181.00+0.91

Market Commentary

The Week Ahead – The key economic reports this week are October Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales. For manufacturing, the November Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week.

For a more in-depth analysis of the economy and markets, be sure to red this week’s edition of the Weekly Relative ValueIt’s Good to be King – to be published later this morning.

Monday, November 18
10:00 am: The November National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index. The consensus is for a reading of 71, unchanged from 71. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

Tuesday, November 19
8:30 am: Housing Starts for October. The consensus is for 1.320 million annualized, up from 1.256 million.

Wednesday, November 20
7:00 am: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 pm: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from October 29-30, 2019.

Thursday, November 21
8:30 am: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 219,000 initial claims, down from 225,000 last week.

8:30 am: The Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 7.5, up from 5.6.

10:00 am: Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.49 million annualized, up from 5.38 million in September.

Friday, November 22
10:00 am: University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (final for November). The consensus is for a reading of 95.7.

11:00 am: The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey for November.

 

Economic Calendar

November 18 - 22, 2019: The Week Ahead

Economic Calendar

Future Fed Expectations

Source: Bloomberg

Future Fed Expectations

 

Expected Fed Funds Path

 

 

Select Probabilities based on the Futures 
Probability of Fed Funds rate CUT on December 11, 20190%
Probability of Fed Funds rate CUT on January 29, 202019%

**All quoted rates are indications and are subject to change without notice.
* ISI is a member of the FINRA/SIPC.

The information contained herein is prepared by ISI Registered Representatives for general circulation and is distributed for general information only. This information does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situations or particular needs of any specific individual or organization that may receive this report. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities. All opinions, prices, and yields contained herein are subject to change without notice. Investors should understand that statements regarding future prospects might not be realized. Please contact Balance Sheet Solutions to discuss your specific situation and objectives.