Home » Publications & News » Publications » Daily Commentary

Logo for Alloya Investment Services

Daily Commentary

Commentary prepared by Alloya Investment Services, a division of the wholly owned CUSO of Alloya Corporate Federal Credit Union. Alloya Investment Services is a leading broker/dealer consultant to credit unions.

Friday, October 2, 2026 at 8:00 am CT
Commentary prepared by Tom Slefinger, Market Strategist

Market Indications

09/28/26 Line chart comparing Treasury yield curves from one year ago, 30 days ago, and current. The current curve is highest across all maturities, rising from about 4.2% at 3 months to 5.5% at 20 to 30 years. The 30-days-ago curve is slightly lower, while the year-ago curve is lowest, indicating yields have increased over time across the curve.

Other Market Indicators

Market Indicators
2s/5s Tsy Spread0.21-0.01
2s/10s Tsy Spread0.44-0.01
2s/30s Tsy Spread 0.81-0.01
DJIA-30 50,926.56+0.04%
S&P-500 7,666.45+0.19%
NASDAQ26,871.60+0.04%
Dollar Idx 102.02-0.07%
WTI89.42-3.75%
Gold4,186.35+0.23%

Daily Commentary

Markets are ending the week with mixed signals. U.S. equity futures have some life, and bonds are finally behaving. The 10-year Treasury yield is down 1 basis point to 5.22%. The dollar is flat, while gold and Bitcoin are catching a bid.

WTI crude is down 3.75% to $89.50 per barrel, giving stocks and bonds a lift into the weekend — even as the Pentagon sends another aircraft carrier and 10,000 Marines to the Persian Gulf. But do not confuse relief with resolution. More traffic is moving through Hormuz, yet refining capacity remains strained, inventories are depleted and Chinese demand is rising. Diesel is still in short supply worldwide. At $6.40 per gallon, the price remains 70% above pre-war levels. Crude may be easing. The energy crisis is not.

Bond bears betting on four more Fed hikes should take notice. October hike odds have collapsed to around 20% from 70% earlier this week. Jefferson, Williams, Bowman, Cook and Logan all pushed back — some directly, others by what they did not say. Even the hawks see no urgency, and Logan says the bond market is already doing the Fed’s work. The message is clear: The Fed is now leaning against aggressive rate-hike bets, just as it pushed back on rate-cut bets last winter. The tone has shifted. See “Here’s Why the Fed Is on Hold — Maybe for a While” (The Wall Street Journal).

10/02/26 Line chart showing the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike from September 23 to October 2, 2026. Rate hike odds peaked at 77.5% on September 24, fell to 51.5% on September 29, and dropped further to 26.4% by October 2, a decline of 51.1 percentage points. The chart highlights a shift in market expectations from an October rate hike to a pause, following public comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Today is jobs day. Payroll estimates are all over the map. No surprise. Low response rates and major shifts in how people work have made the labor data less reliable. The consensus still expects a decent report of 90,000 new jobs and a stable unemployment rate of 4.1%.The bigger question is simple: If the labor market is fine, where is the wage growth? Real wages are going nowhere, and labor’s share of the economy is falling. After months of tariff- and Gulf War-driven inflation, workers still cannot get meaningful raises. Some of the shift toward profits may reflect self-employment and side hustles, which show up as profits rather than wages. Weak wage growth is good news for inflation and corporate costs. But the disconnect is hard to ignore — and it raises another red flag about the data.

Stay tuned. The data is released at 8:30 am ET.

10/02/26 Line chart of year-over-year private-sector wage growth from January 2020 to August 2026. Wage growth spiked to 8.1% in April 2020, fell to 0.6% in April 2021, rose to nearly 6% in 2022, and gradually slowed to 3.1% by August 2026, near the 3% pace associated with stable inflation and productivity growth. The chart notes that nominal wage growth has returned near normal levels, while real average hourly earnings were down 0.3% year over year in August 2026.

Stay tuned and have a great day!

Economic Calendar

September 28 - October 2, 2026

09/28/26 Economic calendar for Sept. 29 to Oct. 2, 2026, highlighting key U.S. releases including consumer confidence, ADP employment, personal income and spending, GDP, manufacturing PMIs, jobless claims, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, factory orders, and durable goods orders.

Future Fed Expectations

Source: Bloomberg


as of 9/8/2026

09/28/26 Table of market-implied federal funds rates showing expectations rising from 3.89% in September 2026 to a peak of 4.83% in November 2027, with increases versus one week earlier across all projected Fed meeting dates.

09/28/26 Line chart titled "Expected Fed Funds Path" showing projected federal funds rates rising gradually over time. Rates increase from approximately 3.9% in September 2026 to 4.05% in November 2026, 4.2% in December 2026, 4.27% in January 2027, and 4.47% in March 2027, indicating expectations for continued rate increases through early 2027.

Select Probabilities based on the Futures
Probability of Fed Funds rate HIKE on October 28, 202668%
Probability of Fed Funds rate HIKE on December 9, 202681%

**All quoted rates are indications and are subject to change without notice.
* ISI is a member of the FINRA/SIPC.

The information contained herein is prepared by ISI Registered Representatives for general circulation and is distributed for general information only. This information does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situations or particular needs of any specific individual or organization that may receive this report. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities. All opinions, prices, and yields contained herein are subject to change without notice. Investors should understand that statements regarding future prospects might not be realized. Please contact Alloya Investment Services to discuss your specific situation and objectives.