Daily Commentary
Commentary prepared by Alloya Investment Services(opens in new tab), a division of the wholly owned CUSO of Alloya Corporate Federal Credit Union. Alloya Investment Services is a leading broker/dealer consultant to credit unions.
Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:00 am CT
Commentary prepared by Tom Slefinger, Market Strategist
Market Indications
Other Market Indicators
| Market Indicators | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2s/5s Tsy Spread | 0.19 | +0.02 |
| 2s/10s Tsy Spread | 0.39 | +0.01 |
| 2s/30s Tsy Spread | 0.81 | .00 |
| DJIA-30 | 52,064.46 | -0.60% |
| S&P-500 | 7,591.79 | -0.58% |
| NASDAQ | 26,081.73 | -0.65% |
| Dollar Idx | 99.09 | +0.28% |
| WTI | 102.89 | +7.12% |
| Gold | 4,322.73 | -1.77% |
Daily Commentary
Recap — Stocks traded lower again yesterday, and Treasuries sold off sharply as the oil surge above $100 revived inflation fears and overwhelmed a broadly benign producer-price report. The 10-year yield climbed about 12 basis points to roughly 4.95%, nearing the psychologically important 5% level; the 2-year rose about 13 basis points to around 4.56%, while the 30-year advanced roughly 8 basis points to 5.37%. A smaller-than-expected Treasury buyback did little to calm the market, although demand at the 30-year auction was solid.
The bond-led spike in mortgage rates has triggered a rapid decline in applications down to around -20% from year-ago levels. It says something that the level is already below the troughs of the past three recessions.
Existing home sales fell by -2.0% month over month in August to a 3.98 million annualized unit rate — riding a three-month losing streak. Sales are now down to a fourteen-month low and -1.2% below last year’s depressed level. And this is just the thin edge of the wedge since existing sales are based on contracts signed months ago, which have just now closed. It really says something that sales turnover activity is lower today than in October 2008, when the economy was in the eleventh month of a recession nobody ever believed could be possible and a month after Lehman collapsed.
Housing starts are down -13.5% year over year, and new home sales by -6.3% in this booming economy. Total residential construction expenditures have sagged -7.3% year over year. The S&P 500 homebuilder sector index has collapsed -25% over the past year, so I would advise against telling anyone with exposure to the group what a great place the stock market has been.
The rise in oil prices, the surge in capital needs in the AI spending binge, and the hawkish Fed talk have all conspired to send the most rate-sensitive sector into the toilet. Everyone hates the bond market, and virtually every analyst, strategist, and economist is practically gleefully cheering on the Fed to tighten policy and for the so-called bond vigilantes to take yields even higher.
I don’t even know for the bond bears if there is a yield that will ever be high enough to entice them to turn bullish. The thing is, if they are right, they have relegated what was one of the quintessential leading indicators of the economy into purgatory for an extended period. This is the AI economy, but do you live in your data center?
Stay tuned and have a great day!
Economic Calendar
September 8 - 11, 2026
Future Fed Expectations
Source: Bloomberg
as of 9/8/2026
| Select Probabilities based on the Futures | |
|---|---|
| Probability of Fed Funds rate HIKE on September 16, 2026 | 60% |
| Probability of Fed Funds rate HIKE on October 28, 2026 | 27% |
**All quoted rates are indications and are subject to change without notice.
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