Daily Commentary
Commentary prepared by Alloya Investment Services, a division of the wholly owned CUSO of Alloya Corporate Federal Credit Union. Alloya Investment Services is a leading broker/dealer consultant to credit unions.
Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 7:30 am CT
Commentary prepared by Tom Slefinger, Market Strategist
Market Indications
Other Market Indicators
| Market Indicators | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2s/5s Tsy Spread | 0.07 | -0.01 |
| 2s/10s Tsy Spread | 0.24 | -0.01 |
| 2s/30s Tsy Spread | 0.58 | -0.03 |
| DJIA-30 | 52,486.49 | +0.49% |
| S&P-500 | 7,619.38 | +1.31% |
| NASDAQ | 24,466.19 | +1.60% |
| Dollar Idx | 102.91 | +0.01% |
| WTI | 85.93 | -0.67% |
| Gold | 3,943.23 | -1.09% |
Daily Commentary
The headlines are all about Nvidia for reasons that have nothing to do with AI. Media reports allege that Jensen Huang had two affairs: one with an alleged Chinese spy and another with an executive who reports to him. They also claim an employee recorded part of a hotel encounter at an Nvidia conference, then was pressured to turn over the recording and sign a nondisclosure agreement.
For investors, the bigger issue is leadership risk. Huang is Nvidia’s founder and the public face of the AI boom. Nvidia sits at the center of that boom — as a supplier, customer and financier.
Not surprisingly, the bulls want Huang to stay. Their argument is simple: Too much rides on Nvidia to risk a leadership crisis now. That puts the board in a tough spot. Keeping the AI boom going is one thing. Holding its leader accountable is another. Some bulls frame Nvidia’s future as a national security issue, while bailout talk takes the argument a step further. The message is clear: They see Nvidia as too important to fail.
As such, U.S. equity futures are weak, led by the Nasdaq this time, but the decline is hardly dramatic (-0.9%). The primary cause is the -7% drubbing in Nvidia’s share price, which is poised to hit a 52-week low. Ironically, this all happens with Nvidia’s earnings results a week away — as well as Anthropic’s initial public offering expected the day after — it is more intertwined with Nvidia than ever before. In fact, many of the mega-tech companies are planning to partake in this Anthropic offering.
Bond yields are stable. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is 5% on the nose. Ditto for the DXY Dollar Index at just below 103, and oil (WTI at $86.40 per barrel), but these no-moves have not stopped the gold price from sliding more than -1% to $3,943 per ounce and is back facing a critical technical test to the downside. Bitcoin has sagged -1.2% as well to $73,410 in an added sign of this setback to the risk-on trade.
Stay tuned and have a great day!
Economic Calendar
November 9-13, 2026
Future Fed Expectations
Source: Bloomberg
| Select Probabilities based on the Futures | |
|---|---|
| Probability of Fed Funds rate HIKE on December 9, 2026 | 80% |
| Probability of Fed Funds rate HIKE on January 27, 2027 | 22% |
**All quoted rates are indications and are subject to change without notice.
* ISI is a member of the FINRA/SIPC.
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