Daily Commentary
Commentary prepared by Alloya Investment Services, a division of the wholly owned CUSO of Alloya Corporate Federal Credit Union. Alloya Investment Services is a leading broker/dealer consultant to credit unions.
Monday, April 29, 2024 at 8:00 am CT
Commentary prepared by Tom Slefinger, SVP, Director of Institutional Fixed Income Sales, Registered Representative of ISI*, Alloya Investment Services
Market Indications
Other Market Indicators
| Market Indicators | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2s/5s Tsy Spread | -0.29 | -0.01 |
| 2s/10s Tsy Spread | -0.31 | -0.02 |
| 2s/30s Tsy Spread | -0.20 | -0.03 |
| DJIA-30 | 38,085.80 | -375.12 |
| S&P-500 | 5,048.42 | -23.21 |
| NASDAQ | 15,611.76 | -100.99 |
| Dollar Idx | 105.77 | +0.17 |
| CRB Idx | 297.66 | +0.57 |
| Gold | 2,345.06 | +11.62 |
Daily Commentary
The Week Ahead
It's a big week on the macro front with the Federal Reserve meeting and jobs report.
The interest rate policy statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be watched more for any verbiage changes, with futures trading implying a 97% probability that interest rates will be kept at their current levels. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's Q&A will also be closely watched for any hints on when the Fed might consider its first rate cut of the cycle.
The key economic report scheduled for this week is the April employment report. Other key reports include February Case-Shiller house prices, April vehicle sales and the March trade balance. For manufacturing, the April Dallas Fed manufacturing survey and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index will be released.
For a more in-depth analysis of the economy and markets please be sure to read this week’s edition of the Weekly Relative Value – A Demographic Time Bomb? – to be released later this morning.
Monday, April 29th -----
10:30 am ET: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.
Tuesday, April 30th -----
9:00 am ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for February. The consensus is for a 6.7% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for February.
9:45 am ET: Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 45.0, up from 41.4 in March.
Wednesday, May 1st -----
7:00 am ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 am ET: The ADP Employment Report for April. The consensus is for 180,000 payroll jobs added in April, down from 184,000 added in March.
10:00 am ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.1, down from 50.3 in March.
10:00 am ET: Construction spending for March. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.
10:00 am ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for March.
2:00 pm ET: FOMC meeting announcement. No change to the Fed funds rate is expected at this meeting.
2:30 pm ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
All day: Light vehicle sales for April. The expectation is for light vehicle sales to be 15.7 million annualized in April, up from 15.5 million in March.
Thursday, May 2nd -----
8:30 am ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 210,000 initial claims, up from 207,000 last week.
8:30 am ET: Trade balance report for March. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $68.8 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $68.9 billion in February.
Friday, May 3rd -----
8:30 am ET: Employment report for April. The consensus is for 210,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.8%.
10:00 am ET: The ISM Services Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 52.0, up from 51.4.
Have a great week!
Economic Calendar
April 29 - May 3, 2024: The Week Ahead
Future Fed Expectations
Source: Bloomberg
| Select Probabilities based on the Futures | |
|---|---|
| Probability of Fed Funds rate CUT on May 1. 2024 | -2% |
| Probability of Fed Funds rate CUT on June 12, 2024 | -11% |
**All quoted rates are indications and are subject to change without notice.
* ISI is a member of the FINRA/SIPC.
The information contained herein is prepared by ISI Registered Representatives for general circulation and is distributed for general information only. This information does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situations or particular needs of any specific individual or organization that may receive this report. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities. All opinions, prices, and yields contained herein are subject to change without notice. Investors should understand that statements regarding future prospects might not be realized. Please contact Alloya Investment Services to discuss your specific situation and objectives.