COVID-19 Impacts and the Presidential Election

Presidential election years typically correspond with better-than-normal economic performance, but this time around is sure to be different. In the first quarter of 2020, the U.S. saw GDP drop 4.8% – the steepest drop since the Great Recession of 2008/09. Keep in mind, however, that the U.S. economy was running as normal for the first two months of 2020. With the arrival of COVID-19 and its implications, like lockdowns and stay-at-home orders, the economy has and will continue to suffer. There are now 32 million Americans receiving unemployment benefits. That equates to 20% of the total labor force. And even as economies reopen, many American will choose to stay at home on their own accord until a viable treatment or vaccine is readily available. All of this raises the specter of a truly grim second quarter, with the consensus expecting a 35% drop in GDP.

As we approach the U.S. presidential election, currently slated for November 3, 2020, the economy is sure to be at the forefront of most everyone’s priorities. How will the pandemic influence the candidates’ economic stances? How will the election, in turn, influence the economy? How might we expect the economy to react to the election outcome? If the election is postponed? What happens then? And what does this all mean for credit union portfolio decisions and balance sheet strategy?

Join us for a credit union focused live discussion on how the presidential election, the novel coronavirus and economic forecasts are likely to influence the economic climate, credit union operations and investing as we close out 2020 and move into 2021.

Panelist: Steven Rick ; Tom Slefinger; Jordan van Rijn
Moderated by Tim Bruculere, Alloya Corporate FCU