Q4 Economic Overview and Portfolio Strategy

Thursday, October 10, 2019 ~ 2:00 pm (ET)

To the surprise of virtually all economists, pundits and strategists, interest rates have plummeted over the past 12 months. The 10-year Treasury yield has been sliced in half as yields have declined from 3.3% to 1.50%. The 30-year Treasury bond has reached all-time record low levels. This was not supposed to happen.

Meanwhile the yield curve has inverted. The 3-month/10-year spread has now been negative for three months. Historically when these conditions have occurred in the past a recession has followed 100% of the time. Outside the U.S. $17 trillion or 30% of bonds have negative yields.

Clearly the U.S. and global bond markets are pricing in a slowing economy. So, is a recession on the horizon? If so, when? And how will the Federal Reserve respond? Will they revert to zero interest rates (ZIRP2)? Or could it be the bond market is simply wrong and sending false signals about the economy?

In this session we will examine why yields have declined so dramatically and whether the downward trend will continue as we end the year and move into 2020. In addition, we will discuss what part of the yield curve and sectors offer the best relative value.

What you will learn:

  • How you can optimize your credit union’s investment portfolio going into 2020
  • The current state of the U.S. and global economies and how they impact your portfolio strategy
  • Why yields have declined substantially and whether or not this downward trend will continue into 2020

Presenter:

Gregory Perry, Institutional Fixed Income Sales, Balance Sheet Solutions

Gregg has been in the financial solutions arena for more than 10 years, including joining Balance Sheet Solutions in 2006. As an Institutional Fixed Income Sales Representative, he collaborates directly with CEOs and CFOs to expand their available investment options and realize their balance sheet strategies. From fixed income investment options – including marketable securities – to brokered certificates (SimpliCD), Gregg offers access to a wealth of resources. Credit union decision makers regularly use his services, not only for their investment portfolio needs, but also to strengthen their overall balance sheet.

Prior to this, Gregg was an investment consultant in Empire Corporate FCU’s Investment Center, as well as a Senior Securities Consultant with MemberTrade Financial Group, LLC. Previously, Gregg worked for a major commercial bank, as well as a large investment-planning firm.

Gregg holds his M.B.A. from the State University of New York at Albany and his bachelor’s degree in Political Science and History from the University of Michigan. In addition, he has taught classes as an adjunct professor at Russell Sage College. Gregg holds his Series 7 and 63 through ISI and his Series 65 through Balance Sheet Solutions.


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