Daily Market Commentary

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Weekly Relative Value

Published at the top of each week by Balance Sheet Solutions, Weekly Relative Value tracks market and economic trends, analyzes key releases and watches ongoing political developments.  

Commentary prepared by Balance Sheet Solutions, LLC, a wholly owned CUSO of Alloya Corporate Federal Credit Union. Balance Sheet Solutions is a leading broker/dealer, investment advisor and ALM risk management consultant to credit unions.

Monday, April 23, 2018 at 8:00 a.m. CST
Commentary prepared by Tom Slefinger, SVP, Director of Institutional Fixed Income Sales, Registered Representative of ISI*, Balance Sheet Solutions

Market Indications

Historic Curves

Other Market Indicators

2s/5s Tsy Spread 0.35 +0.01
2s/10s Tsy Spread 0.51 +0.01
2s/30s Tsy Spread 0.69 +0.01

DJIA-30   24462.94 -201.95
NASDAQ 7146.13 -91.93
S&P-500 2670.14 -22.99

Dollar Idx 90.64 +0.32
CRB Idx 201.19 -0.79


Today's Market Commentary

The key economic reports this week are the advance estimate of Q1 GDP, March new and existing home sales and Case-Shiller house prices.

For a more in-depth analysis of the economy and markets, be sure to read this week’s edition of the Weekly Relative ValueA Dose of Reality – to be released later this morning.

Monday, April 23

8:30 am: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 am: Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.28 million, down from 5.54 million in February.

Tuesday, April 24

9:00 am: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for February.

10:00 am: New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 630 thousand up from 618 thousand in February.

10:00 am: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.

Wednesday, April 25

7:00 am: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Thursday, April 26

8:30 am: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 230 thousand initial claims, down from 232 thousand the previous week.

8:30 am: Durable Goods Orders for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.7% increase in durable goods orders.

10:00 am: The Census Bureau’s Q1 2018 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report.

11:00 am: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for March.

Friday, April 27

8:30 am: Gross Domestic Product, Q1 2018 (advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.0% annualized in Q1, down from 2.9% in Q4.

9:45 am: The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 57.9, up from 57.4 in March.

10:00 am: The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index (Final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 98.0, up from 97.8.


Economic Calendar

April 23 - 27, 2018: The Week Ahead

Economic Calendar


Future Fed Expectations
Sources: Bloomberg

Future Fed Expectations

Expected Fed Funds Path

Select Probabilities based on the Futures

Probability of Fed Funds rate increase on May 2, 2018 30%
Probability of Fed Funds rate increase on June 13, 2018 92%

**All quoted rates are indications and are subject to change without notice.
* ISI is a member of the FINRA/SIPC.

The information contained herein is prepared by ISI Registered Representatives for general circulation and is distributed for general information only. This information does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situations or particular needs of any specific individual or organization that may receive this report. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities. All opinions, prices, and yields contained herein are subject to change without notice. Investors should understand that statements regarding future prospects might not be realized. Please contact Balance Sheet Solutions to discuss your specific situation and objectives.